Are super El Niños great for Colorado ski season? | Whiteout

In the winters of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, North America's weather was subject to a strong or 'super' El Niño — an event where the sea surface temperature is at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average.

The three El Niño events brought mixed total amounts of snowfall to Colorado's mountains. However, data compiled from Tony Crocker at bestsnow.net shows each winter season had a few locations more susceptible to super El Niño snows piling higher.

Crocker, an actuary and statistician, has been collecting snow totals from hundreds of resorts since 1991 and compiled summaries from the three 'super' El Niño events. He organized snow totals for the winter season only — December to March — to compile seasonal averages during each El Niño event.

The results show Colorado benefits from strong El Niños with a couple of caveats. 

During winter 1982-83 — the strongest El Niño of the 20th century — a +2.8 Celsius El Niño event brought to Colorado resorts Arapahoe Basin and Loveland, and backcountry-accessed spots near Berthoud Pass, high snow totals of 418", 417", and 362" respectively.

Several other resorts around the state saw large recorded snow totals during the winter months. Even Steamboat (having a low snow fall year) in northern Colorado, recorded over 200 inches of snow during the three month period. 

• Above average: Mary Jane 393", Wolf Creek 286", Vail 261", Winter Park 256", Copper Mountain 210", Purgatory 185", and Aspen 181"
• Below Average: Monarch 259", Sunlight 151", and Crested Butte 136"
• Low: Steamboat 232"

During winter 1997-98, the +2.5 Celsius El Niño event brought to Colorado resort Telluride a recorded high snow total of 232 inches, or 33 inches above average.

• Above average: Copper Mountain 278", Aspen Highlands 246", and Steamboat 243"
• Below average: Mary Jane 362", Loveland 354", Vail 339", Beaver Creek 330", Arapahoe Basin 283", Breckenridge 250", Wolf Creek 233", Aspen 178", Purgatory 182", Monarch 170", Crested Butte 155" and Keystone 155"

During winter 2015-16, a +2.1 Celsius El Niño event brought below average snow totals for several Colorado resorts.

However, Summit County's Keystone recorded a high snow fall total of 295 inches, nearly 100 inches above average.

• Above average: Wolf Creek 423", Steamboat 408", Breckenridge 373", Mary Jane 360", Loveland 350", Beaver Creek 341", Aspen Highlands 254", and Telluride 221"
• Below average: Vail 342", Arapahoe Basin 298", Monarch 278", Snowmass 279", Copper Mountain 258", Aspen 250", and Purgatory 185"
• Low: Crested Butte 162"

Denver Gazette media partner 9News' meteorologist Cory Reppenhagen reported Friday a new climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting winter 2023-24 to be a strong El Niño.

With the possibility of a fourth strong or 'super' El Niño to occur in winter 2023-24 along with looking at the historical snow total records from the prior three events, a pattern of places where the most snow might fall this season is slightly, albeit anecdotal, starting to shape up.

If choosing to ski or ride solely-based off of average sea surface temperature, winter 2023-24 might appear like winter 1997-98, where resorts Winter Park/Mary Jane, Vail/Beaver Creek and Loveland become the best overall places to ski for the season.

Looking solely at snow totals from all three 'super' El Niño events, Winter Park/Mary Jane, Wolf Creek, Vail/Beaver Creek and Loveland become the best overall places.

Looking at the data from the three events, Crested Butte, Monarch, and Purgatory received the lowest snow amounts on average each El Niño.

A broad-base conclusion from Crocker's numbers shows the central Colorado mountains — Elks, West Elks, Sawatch and Grand Mesa ranges — receive the least amount of snow from strong El Niños, with the Park, Front Range and San Juan ranges fairing best.

It is important to note that each El Niño is different from the next, however even with the small sample size of only three events recorded since 1950, resorts approximately south of US Highway 50 and north of Interstate 70, and along the Front Range and Continental Divide, could be the best places to ski and ride this winter.

SNOW REPORT:

Forecast:

Snow showers began rolling into Colorado early Wednesday morning with snow moving from the northwest to the southeast. The northern and central mountains received 2-4 inches. 

The snow stopped Thursday morning and sunny skies are forecast to welcome skiers and riders to an additional 2-6 inches. Of the four Colorado resorts open Thursday, Winter Park, Arapahoe Basin and Eldora looked to benefit the most from this storm as Keystone is further into Summit County and off the Continental Divide.

Some fresh snow should be left over at Breckenridge, Vail and Loveland for their opening days Friday.  

SNO'NEWS:

• Women's World Cup racing picks up again in Levi, Finland Saturday with two slalom races on the Levi Black slope. Mikaela Shiffrin and Paula Moltzan look to not only add points to their World Cup season but get on the podium. Shiffrin has ample experience at Levi, with six, first-place wins.

Moltzan can't be considered out before the races start either. She has three, top-25 finishes at Levi, plus with her second-run finish in second place (11th overall in the giant slalom race) at Soelden, Austria on Oct. 28, Moltzan could bank off that finish and carry some momentum into the slalom races.

The three main ways to watch FIS races are online at NBC/Peacock, Outside and US Ski and Snowboard.

• Breckenridge Resort (first chair will be on the Five Superchair) and Vail Resort (both gondolas will be spinning), and Loveland Ski Area in Clear Creek County, all open Friday. Wolf Creek Ski Area opens Saturday and Copper Mountain Resort opens Monday. As of Monday, nine ski areas will be open in Colorado.