CRONIN & LOEVY | Rockies are (mostly) Trump country

The eight Rocky Mountain states comprise the most Republican region in the United States, voting 57.8% Republican during the current decade of the 2010s. Close behind the Rocky Mountain states, however, is the South — just one-half of one percentage point behind — at 57.3% Republican.

With the presidential election days away, about the safest bet you can make is that incumbent Republican President Donald Trump will win the Rocky Mountain West and the South.

Colorado is one of two states in the Rocky Mountain West not conforming to the Republican pattern in the region and supports the Democrats. In the present decade of elections (2010 to 2018), Colorado averaged 52.2% Democratic. The other Rocky Mountain state voting for the Democrats was New Mexico, at 53.6% Democratic.

The elections studied for this survey were U.S. president, state governor, and U.S. senator. The period studied was from 1980 through 2018.

Colorado gets its Democratic fervor from the large Democratic vote in the Denver-Boulder metropolitan area. New Mexico bills itself as a “Tri-cultural Society” (Anglo-Hispanic-Native American). Its preference for the Democrats comes from strong support in the Hispanic and Native American communities.

The three most Republican states in the Rocky Mountain West – and they are very Republican – are Utah (68.8% Republican), Idaho (66% Republican), and Wyoming (73.5% Republican).

Utah is Republican because of the conservatism of its large Mormon population. Idaho and Wyoming are fertile ground for the GOP because they are rural agricultural states with no large metropolitan areas.

The last three Republican states in the Rocky Mountain West are Nevada (52% Republican), Montana (52.9% Republican), and Arizona (55.1% Republican).

Nevada has two major cities, Las Vegas and Reno. Gambling casino and hospitality workers in those two cities sway Nevada in the direction of the Democrats, yet the state remains Republican. Montana is a traditional farming and ranching state and thus pro-GOP. Arizona is apparently undergoing demographic and partisan change with the Democrats now being competitive with Republicans.

It is the vast amount of farming and ranching lands dotted with small cities that give the Rocky Mountain states their overall strong Republican flavor. On the other hand, growing Democratic cities in Colorado and New Mexico and elsewhere in the region somewhat curtail that Republicanism.

The South has been moving Republican for the past four decades. In the 1980s, the South was 50.3% Democratic. It is now 57.3% Republican. That is a shift of 7.6% to the Republicans, the largest shift made by any region of the United States from the 1980s to the 2010s.

The Republican percentage of the vote in the vast majority of the Southern states runs in the high 50 percents to the low 60 percents. There are two exceptions to this strong regional GOP showing. Virginia, thanks to sprawling Democratic suburbs south of Washington, D.C., is 53.2% Democratic. Florida, perhaps the swingiest state in this presidential election, sits in the middle of the two major parties at 50.1% Democratic.

The longtime conversion of the South from the most Democratic region of the nation to one of the most Republican is one of the striking realities in contemporary American politics. There is no question that the South will easily surge past the Rocky Mountain states and become the most Republican region of the nation.

The 13 states of the Midwest were once the center of Republican Party strength in American politics, but in 2020 the Midwest is the region most famous for swinging the balance of voting power between the two major political parties. It contains two strongly Democratic states in Minnesota (56.2% Democratic) and Illinois (54.6% Democratic). These Democratic states are offset, however, by Republican-supporting states like Iowa (56.6% Republican) and Kentucky (55.2% Republican) and Indiana (54.1% Republican).

Yet the Midwest is most famous for having states that fall right on the midline between the two major parties. Best examples: Wisconsin (50.2% Democratic), Michigan (52.4% Democratic), Ohio (50.4% Republican), and Missouri (51.8% Republican).

New England is the smallest region geographically. Similar to the Midwest, New England long ago was prime Republican territory. Now in the 2010s it is Democratic territory, clocking in at 54.7% Democratic. New England’s most Democratic state is Rhode Island, which registers at 61.6% Democratic.

The last two regions in our study are also the two most Democratic in the country. The Pacific Coast states are 56.3% Democratic and the Middle Atlantic states are 56.9% Democratic. These two coastal giants are the big regional vote producers for the Democratic Party.

Taken together, the regions of New England, the Pacific Coast, and the Middle Atlantic comprise 17 states. Only three of the 17 averaged Republican during the 2010s decade. They were New Hampshire, Alaska, and West Virginia.