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Photo by Helen H. Richardson, The Denver Post
By BARRY NOREEN, THE GAZETTE
The statewide snowpack is 73 percent of normal for this time of year, which means there will be Draconian water restrictions, starving livestock and above all, we’re all going to die.
No, the early-season anemic snowpack has made for lower quality skiing, but the only true thing on that list is that, yes, we are all going to die — the question is when. Readers must remember that for the couple of weeks after Christmas, the news business is a dead zone and invariably some reporter or Action News Team fills the void with a story about the snowpack in Colorado’s high country.
When there is plenty of snow, the story line becomes “high tide and green grass, water a-plenty.” When, as is the case this year, the snowpack is on the light side, the story becomes a doom-and-gloom tale of woe.
Truth is, it is much too early for anyone tell how high the tide will rise, or how green the grass will be, come spring.
“I don’t even do a forecast until February because there’s no point,” said Abby Ortega, planning supervisor for the water department within Colorado Springs Utilities.
Although the statewide snowpack is only 73 percent of average, there is wide variability among the river basins. The Arkansas River Basin, which includes Colorado Springs and Pueblo, is doing better — 89 percent of average, which is one little blizzard away from 100 percent.
Although last season was a good snow year everywhere in the state, Ortega noted that “we have about double the amount of snow on Pikes Peak this year” compared with January 2011.
Sorry if this pumps all the drama out of the Biblical drought story for you.
State Climatologist Nolan Doesken, a researcher at Colorado State University, said the early light snows don’t mean the Rockies still won’t be smothered by April.
“You can’t write it off at this point, that’s for sure,” Doesken said.
Doesken recalled that the most recent horrible snowpack year was the winter of 2001-2002, which “didn’t get off to that bad a start, but it had a wretched finish.”
In 1999, he said, “it was a major flood year” which began with a January snowpack that was “so-so at best.”
Even if it’s a horrible snow year, Ortega said Colorado Springs has more than a two-year supply of water stored in reservoirs, so we’re not going to dry up and blow away. Although many people understandably view the snowpack as something upon which to ski, water planners know “most of our snowfall comes in the spring,” Ortega said.
So when your hear Henny Penny clucking about the snowpack, remember what the experts say: Tell us what the snow depths are in March and April. Until then, find something else to worry about.
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